The main findings of the survey has the BJP just under the half way mark of 30 seats in the Manipur Assembly with a seat projection of 25-29, to seats. The main Opposition, the Congress 17-21, is behind with seats, and NPP 7-11, NPF 3-5 and others 2-4 seats.
TFM Desk
The just concluded Assembly Elections in Manipur is most likely throw up a fractured mandate like the last elections. The BJP, which heads the state’s ruling coalition, will emerge as the single largest party, says a post-poll survey conducted by the Hyderabad based political research organisation, Peoples Pulse, and satellite news channel, K News India.
Peoples Pulse conducted the post-poll survey in 10 Assembly constituencies. The Probability Proportional to Size methodology was adopted. Five polling stations were selected in each Assembly constituency by systematic random sampling method.
A sample of 20-25 voters were selected from each polling station with representation reflecting the situation on the field. Face to face interviews and secret ballot formed the content of the survey, says the survey report.
The BJP leads with 25-29 seats
The main findings of the survey has the BJP just under the half way mark of 30 seats in the Manipur Assembly with a seat projection of 25-29, to seats. The main Opposition, the Congress 17-21, is behind with seats, and NPP 7-11, NPF 3-5 and others 2-4 seats.
Coming to the vote share the BJP is leading over the Congress by four per cent – 33 per cent to 29 per cent. The NPP is polling around 11 per cent and others are at 27 per cent.
It is important to mention that in any survey a five per cent plus or minus error needs to factored in both the projection of seats and vote share.
The next chief minister
The survey also says that on the issue of choice for the next chief minister, the incumbent N Biren Singh is leading the pack with 34 per cent of the respondents preferring him. He is enjoying a ten per cent lead over the Congress’ Okram Ibobi, a former chief minister, who is at 24 per cent. Yumnam Joykumar Singh comes next with 13 per cent.
Election issues and poll planks
The dominant issue in Manipur elections is Territorial integrity. Other major issues are unemployment, corruption, drinking water, infrastructure and lack of development. The black marketing of urea was a major poll issue. The farmers allege that urea is sold to people in Myanmar and other places where poppy cultivation thrives, says the survey.
BJP’s problem of plenty
The BJP had faced the problem of plenty this time. It had 3-5 ticket aspirants in almost every seat. Over a dozen of those, who were not fielded, moved to other parties and contested the polls. Had the BJP succeeded in keeping them in the fold, they would have possibly formed the government on their own.
There are various factors why the BJP will do better than the other parties. First, it is the ruling party in Manipur as well as at the Centre. It has been a feature in most states in the Northeast that people vote largely for the ruling party. Also, government schemes, Go to Villages programme, CMHT and law and order are the factors that have boosted the BJP.
Secondly, there is no opposition party that could throw up a challenge to the BJP. Congress had got weakened by the defections of half its MLAs over the past five years. Barring one or two, most sitting Congress MLAs are likely to get re-elected.
NPP ‘no where’ behind
The National People’s Party (NPP) is nowhere near the BJP. A section of voters also viewed the party as “alien” as it was raised in Meghalaya, where it is in power, after its birth in Manipur. It is expected to come third after the Congress.
The Naga People’s Front (NPF) is a Naga tribe-based party that was born in Nagaland. It has spread its wings to Manipur in 2011. In 2012 as well as 2017 elections, the NPF had won 4 seats each. It contested in 10 Naga-dominated seats in the hill districts this time. However, unlike in the past, it faced multiple players, including BJP, Congress, NPP and others, this election.
BJP fairs well in hills and valley
Overall, the BJP will fare well in Meitei-majority (Manipuri-majority) Imphal Valley as well as tribal Naga and Kuki-majority hills. The Imphal Valley has 40 seats while the hills have 20 seats.
Most of the 40 seats in the Imphal Valley will be split between the BJP and the Congress. Congress and NPP are expected to win more seats in the Imphal Valley compared to the hills. The BJP has made solid inroads into the hills and is expected to win a good number of seats. The NPF is expected to repeat its past results.
READ THE ENTIRE POST POLL SURVEY HERE: