As US-India bilateral trade negotiations enter a critical phase, farmer organisations in Punjab and Haryana have issued stark warnings: if the government repeats the errors of the 2020 farm laws by sidelining smallholders, a protest movement even more intense than the previous one could erupt.
By Ajātaśatru
From the fields of Punjab to the streets of New Delhi, angry farmers, opposition leaders, and trade unions have taken to the streets. Through actions such as burning effigies, motorcycle rallies, and general strikes, they have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the proposed agreement . Farmer leaders have explicitly stated, “We will not allow the Modi government to sell out the farmers again” .
Imbalance of Interests: The ‘Dimensional Strike’ on Smallholder Economy
The core trigger for the protests is the widespread perception that the US-India trade accord heavily favours large American agribusinesses, placing India’s hundreds of millions of small farmers in a precarious position. The farm sector sustains nearly half of India’s population, and nearly 80% of farmers are smallholders, owning two hectares or less .
Under the proposed framework announced in February 2026, the United States would reduce tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from a previous 50% . In exchange, India committed to reducing or eliminating tariffs on a wide range of US food and agricultural products, including dried distillers’ grains, red sorghum, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, soybean oil, wine, and spirits . India also pledged to purchase up to $500 billion worth of US energy, aircraft, and technology products over the next five years .
However, this “reciprocity” is viewed by farmers as profoundly asymmetrical. Economist Biswajit Dhar noted that the rural economy, on which about 60% of the workforce depends, is already in a precarious state . Farmer leader Raminder Singh Patiala offered a vivid analogy: “If you put a lion and a goat in the same cage, what will be the fate of the goat you can understand. India’s farm sector is like a goat as compared to the lion, like US agriculture. We are no match for them, and that’s why farmers are worried” .
These concerns are not unfounded. The Samyukt Kisan Morcha (SKM) has warned that the animal feed market could be completely monopolised by US companies . Farm leaders also highlighted tariff disparities, noting that while US tariffs on Indian goods rose to 18%, India’s tariffs on US agricultural products would drop to zero .
Rising Tensions: From Effigy Burning to Nationwide Strikes
Farmer leaders have issued ultimatums, threatening “border blockades” and “indefinite strikes” if the government makes concessions without disclosing negotiation details . The SKM has demanded Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal’s immediate resignation, calling him a “traitor” for allegedly misleading farmers about the agreement’s scope .
Protesters have repeatedly burned effigies of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump, symbolising deep disappointment with what they perceive as a betrayal of national interests . The protests have drawn support from opposition parties, including the Congress party, which called the deal a “Trap Deal” and accused the government of making unwise concessions . Congress leader Jairam Ramesh criticised the government for compromising national interests, while the Communist Party of India (Marxist) characterised the agreement as an “attack on Indian sovereignty” .
Underlying Concerns: Sovereignty and Livelihood Crises
Transparency has become a major point of contention. Opposition parties note that the agreement’s details have not been fully disclosed, leaving the public unaware of specific compromises made by the government . The SKM has accused Goyal of “consciously propagating falsehood” about the agreement .
There are also concerns about rising living costs. Farmer protesters have pointed out that shortages of fertilisers and price hikes in diesel and LPG are partly attributable to global supply chain disruptions and trade policy uncertainty .
Additionally, digital sovereignty and strategic autonomy face challenges. The US has pressured India to address non-tariff barriers in ICT and medical devices, raising concerns about erosion of India’s digital sovereignty .
Trust Crisis
The wave of protests triggered by the US-India trade agreement represents not merely an economic game over tariffs and markets, but a profound crisis of social trust. The SKM, which led the massive 2020-21 farm protests, has warned that the government is repeating past mistakes . Apple farmers in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir fear the deal will devastate their livelihoods, with one leader warning that zero tariffs on US apples would be “disastrous” for 1.5 million families dependent on apple cultivation .
While the Indian government insists that sensitive agricultural and dairy products remain protected, farmers’ leaders remain sceptical . As one trade union leader put it: “This is totally against the interest of the people of India” .