The anticipated rise in unemployment could be related to the projection that due to extreme heat wave events from expected El Nino extreme weather events during 2024 unless the situation changes with intervention by a La Nina process that could intercept in mid-2024, there may be large-scale interruptions in labour-intensified sectors particularly in the agriculture sector and the manual-labour oriented industries
By Salam Rajesh
Contradictory to the Government of India’s assertion that the country is headed towards progress and development in human well-being, the Geneva-based International Labour Organization’s latest report suggests India and the other nations in South Asia fare tasking results in the labour sector by the year 2025.
The International Labour Organization (ILO)’s report ‘World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2024’ provides a comprehensive assessment of the latest global labour market trends, including unemployment, job creation, labour force participation and hours worked. Importantly, the report links these trends with their social outcomes.
There is mixed response for South Asia wherein the report indicates that unemployment in South Asia is estimated to rise from 39.6 million in 2022 to 42.3 million in 2025, while at the same time, employment in various sectors is expected to rise from 723 million in 2022 to 783 million in 2025 (Source: ILOSTAT, ILO modelled estimates, November 2023).
The anticipated rise in unemployment could be related to the projection that due to extreme heat wave events from expected El Nino extreme weather events during 2024 unless the situation changes with intervention by a La Nina process that could intercept in mid-2024, there may be large-scale interruptions in labour-intensified sectors particularly in the agriculture sector and the manual-labour oriented industries.
Quite interestingly, the ILO report suggests that little positive change can be expected during 2024, although during 2023 the global unemployment index dropped to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic, and the working poverty and informality approached pre-pandemic rates.
The report contains a fairly interesting reflection on the global labour market due to climate change influences, where primarily this could lead to challenging attitudes in skills development for those already in the work sector and also for the new entrants in the different sectors of employment, whether in the private or public sectors.
The ILO report suggests that as the climate crisis becomes more urgent, governments around the world will be forced to ensure a transition away from combustible and towards renewable energy sources. The related technological shifts, therefore, would lead to changing skills needs and the risk of further skills shortages, the report commented.
A just transition will require integrated policies and significant adaptive capacity and flexibility from workers, employers and governments, the report noted, while suggesting that new and evolving skills requirements to serve new technologies may require workers to undergo significant career changes and frequent training measures.
This interestingly refers to changing needs in the labour sector where Artificial Intelligence inputs and skill development could replace the traditional labour force thus paving the way for out-manoeuvring unskilled labourers and replacing them with individuals trained in technological skills. On the other hand, the report does suggest that bookish knowledge may not attract employers’ attention whereas the choice could be on individuals with hands-down skill on the ground.
For employers, on the other hand, fast-paced change in an environment of labour and skills shortages also means that, across sectors, skills requirements could become more important than degree requirements. The reduction of such barriers could make labour markets more inclusive for individuals with non-standard education and for older workers, the report suggested.
Rising prices in 2021 and 2022 came on the heels of strong fiscal stimulus by governments during the COVID-19 pandemic, and supply chain pressures exacerbated by geopolitical developments including the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. Although all regions and economies have seen inflation rise since 2020, advanced economies have experienced lower levels of inflation than emerging market and developing economies, the report stated.
Outlining the job gaps across the world, the ILO report stated that in the lower-middle-income countries, job gaps rose from 151.3 million in 2019 to 153.2 million during 2023, while in the low-income countries, the job gaps rose from 57.6 million in 2019 to 66.6 million in 2023, thereby indicating the steady rise in job gaps that were largely impacted by the pandemic during 2020 and 2021.
During the pandemic, particularly in the year 2020, most countries suffered a regress in employment growth where the lower-middle-income countries fared at minus 1.1 per cent against 2.1 per cent in 2019, while the upper-middle-income countries suffered a regress at minus 2.9 per cent. During the year 2023, however, both sectors recovered at 4.5 and 0.6 per cent respectively.
A key message in the report is that amidst slowing economic growth, global labour markets have shown resilience during the year 2023, wherein global unemployment dropped to the lowest level since the outbreak of the pandemic and labour force participation recovered in most regions.
The ILO report is, however, sceptical that despite these positive headline indicators, fragility emerged in working conditions, and a cost-of-living crisis arose from fast-rising energy and food prices. Global crisis such as the war in Ukraine, and the rising incidence of conflicts in the Arab countries, is generally attributed as responsible for the fast-rising energy and food prices.
Employment growth in 2024 is projected to falter even though global unemployment will remain broadly unchanged, while major decent work deficits, which to a large degree predate the pandemic, are set to persist under these conditions – especially gender participation gaps, working poverty, and informality, the report stated.
In between these readings at the global scale, the small Himalayan state of Manipur, too, has seen the ups and downs of changes in the employment growth with hundreds of families displaced in the current ethno-socio-political crisis, with scores of families resorting to roadside sale of food items and vegetables to support their families. This comes in the backdrop of government employees enjoying higher income from graded salaries under the 6th and 7th pay commissions, thus displaying the disparities in society.
Suggesting priority action-oriented strategies, the ILO report opined that in fast-ageing countries, policymakers need to support the participation of groups with weak labour market attachment, notably youth, women and older workers, while investment and skills policies need to raise productivity and potential growth and facilitate more productive use of technological progress. Quite relevant for Manipur, too, the report suggests that improvements in sectors and occupations with low pay and difficult working conditions may motivate individuals who left to come back.