In the aftermath of the horrific Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir, Pakistan is on the edge from India’s threat to cut off the water of the Indus River, igniting similar tension that had been boiling over China’s massive dam proposal in Tibet. India’s borders are literally waiting to erupt like a volcano waiting to unleash horror with fire and volcanic hot ash (remember Pompeii)
By Salam Rajesh
It had long been predicted that nations will go at any length to wage wars over water. Media pundits had forecast that the Third Great War could probably break out over water issues. India and Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, and India and China, are actually poised on ‘troubled waters’ over water issues – more precisely the upper and lower riparian dialogues (or tensions).
Globally, the shrinkage of groundwater levels due to extended extraction of water for different industries is making headlines as disaster in the making on the socio-environmental front, with the spice of socio-political flavor added on. Big businesses are relentlessly extracting ground water for manufacturing their soft drinks, large scale commercial plantations and other ventures requiring huge quantity of water.
The proposal of communist China to build the world’s largest ever high-altitude dam over the Yarlung Tsangpo River in the mountainous Himalayan region in Tibet had created ripples globally on several fronts – geopolitical, environment, and the climate crisis.
The long-time standoff between India and China flared up once more with China’s dam proposal, igniting the tension over (trans)boundary issues and water sharing concerns between upper and lower riparian countries. China’s massive dam idea is largely seen as threatening the Himalayan ecology with disastrous results in future times from earthquakes, cloudbursts, or human factors as in the case of armed conflicts.
Climatologists had also warned that the intervention in the fragile Himalayan ecosystem with large build-up of artificial reservoirs could change the hydrological dynamics of the Himalayas and can induce greenhouse gas emissions that may contribute to the already damaging ozone layer depletion, global warming and other climatic factors not conducive for the planetary health.
In the aftermath of the horrific Pahalgam terror attack in Kashmir, Pakistan is on the edge from India’s threat to cut off the water of the Indus River, igniting similar tension that had been boiling over China’s massive dam proposal in Tibet. India’s borders are literally waiting to erupt like a volcano waiting to unleash horror with fire and volcanic hot ash (remember Pompeii).
Geopolitics over water issues is dampening international relationships between neighbors, India-China, India-Pakistan, and India-Bangladesh. India’s activities over Brahmaputra and Barak Rivers had always put Bangladesh on edge. China’s activities in the Tibet region had put India on the edge, and now India’s threat to cut off Indus water has put Pakistan on the edge.
Pakistan’s vocal threat to avenge itself in case India cuts off the water flow of the Indus River reflects the tension over the fact that the Pakistani people could suffer extensively in case the water flow recedes dramatically, endangering the lives of millions of people who depend on the flow of the Indus River for their agrarian lifestyle, livelihoods and economy.
Similarly for Bangladesh, cutting off the water flow of the Brahmaputra could impact the northern parts of that country, inducing droughts and famine. On that same plane, China controlling the water flow of the Tsangpo (Brahmaputra lower down in India) could endanger the lives of millions of people in Bhutan and North East India. It could change the dynamics and ecosystem of the Assam floodplains drastically.
These factors are the recipe for possible armed conflicts over water issues. Water – the elixir of life – cannot be ruled by one nation alone when multiple nations are involved as upper and lower riparian entities. The physics principle of water flows from higher to lower altitude comes into play in such face-offs where countries share topography of mountains and floodplains in continuity.
On the environmental and climate fronts, the accumulation of vast store of water, as by artificial reservoirs, in mountainous setups such as in the fragile Himalayan landscape is seen as dangerous in terms of an uncontrollable force of destruction in case of dam collapse from different reasons. The recent Uttarakhand and Sikkim disasters are a stark reminder that nature can become reasonably wild and ferocious when provoked.
Glacial melts by reason of global warming and the ever increasing global temperature is an added worry for climatologists in the study of changed dynamics in mountain regions largely due to human intervention. That precisely is the worry over China’s dam proposal in Tibet as it could change the geophysical dynamics of the Himalayas. Glacial melts could reinforce the water accumulation of the dam, thus endangering everyone lower down in the plains.
As it is, India is facing a triangular geopolitical stand-off with China, Pakistan and Bangladesh surrounding it on three fronts. The big question is, can India afford to engage the three countries all at once on the water front? The threat of armed conflict looms large over the question of water sharing or the rights over water, as and when upper riparian countries try to dominate over the rights in the upper strata of the geopolitical game.
Interestingly, all four countries had engaged in war at different points of time. Pakistan was at war with India and Bangladesh in 1971, and China was at war with India in 1962. Ever since, China had been at loggerheads with India over (trans)boundary issues, where China claimed territories in Arunachal Pradesh and in Ladakh as its own. Pakistan had been causing headaches for India over its claim on Kashmir since those days of partition in 1947.
Bangladesh recently made a move with Pakistan supporting it to re-create history by designing a new Christian nation for Chin-Kuki groups by the amalgamation of parts of India and Myanmar. This move of course means confronting India geopolitically and in international relationships. So, tension in South Asia is endless, literally.
The crux of the matter is that Pakistan, India and China are all nuclear armed, and any flare up at this point of time can be dangerous for everyone in Asia, and globally. Resorting to threats with the nuclear armaments can be detrimental for the global community as the chain reactions can reach to every nook and corner of the planet, politically and environmentally.