Stabilizing the domestic situation is paramount for India and Myanmar to engage more independently on the global stage. Until then, China’s influence is likely to persist, highlighting the intricate balance between internal stability and external diplomacy.
TFM Special
Internal conflicts in countries such as India and Myanmar (Burma) significantly shape their external diplomatic strategies, as official channels and statist spin-doctors of both the countries attempt to project a different political scenario while addressing domestic unrest. The need to manage internal strife compels these nations to navigate their foreign relations with caution and strategic intent, influencing their alliances, engagements, and approaches toward regional cooperation in Far East, South Asia and South East Asia.
However, in the recent decades, there is a realization that India’s internal conflicts, particularly armed movements or what political observers have termed as insurgencies, ethnic tensions and political rivalries, heavily impact the country’s diplomatic posture. The ongoing issues in Kashmir since the scrapping of Article 370 of the Constitution of India through a Presidential Order dated August 5-6, 2019 and the unending violence in Manipur in Northeastern region since May 3, 2023 require the Indian government to showcase stability to maintain regional influence and project itself as a stabilizing force in South and South East Asia. This focus seemed to have influenced India’s willingness to engage in cooperation and dialogue with neighboring countries, often prioritizing national security over deeper regional integration in recent times.
The Indian government’s approach to foreign relations is also shaped by the necessity to address internal dissent. To counterbalance its ethnic diversity and the potential impacts of internal unrest on national security, India often emphasizes security collaborations with countries like the United States and other South East Asian Nations like Myanmar. These partnerships aim to bolster India’s defense capabilities and enhance its position against external threats, particularly from the rising dragon China.
Myanmar’s Internal Conflicts and Diplomatic Challenges
The internal conflicts in Myanmar, especially following the military coup in 2021, have severely hampered its external diplomatic strategies. The civil war has led to increased international condemnation and sanctions, isolating the military junta from many Western countries. While Myanmar seems to have sought closer ties with China for support, this alignment also illustrates the struggle to maintain a balance between external pressures and internal instability.
As Myanmar’s military faces significant opposition from various ethnic groups and pro-democracy forces, its foreign policy includes hedging strategies that seek to engage with multiple partners while relying heavily on China’s diplomatic and military benevolence. This relationship with China seems to have provided immediate support but it also poses risks of over-reliance, which Myanmar is attempting to mitigate by fostering ties with nations like India, identifiably a country not considered as pro- China.
Hence, both India and Myanmar’s diplomatic strategies are influenced by the humanitarian crises resulting from their internal conflicts. The refugee situation in Myanmar, linked to its internal strife, compels India to address the needs of displaced populations while managing its border security. This complex interplay of domestic humanitarian needs and geopolitical interests necessitates careful navigation of external engagements and partnerships.
Impact of Global Power Dynamics on Regional Strategies
In the broader context of rising Chinese influence, both India and Myanmar face real challenges that require them to carefully calibrate their diplomatic strategies. India’s strategic gambles reflect its concern over Chinese strategic expansion, while Myanmar’s reliance on China for economic support and military backing illustrates its vulnerability amid internal chaos. Both countries recognize the need for a conciliatory approach to international relations grounded in their internal stability.
In the rapidly evolving landscape of global power dynamics, the rise of China as a formidable economic and military power has had profound implications for the strategies of regional players. India and Myanmar, situated in South Asia and Southeast Asia respectively, offer compelling case studies on how nations navigate their diplomatic and strategic paths in response to such a dominant neighbor. This essay explores the impact of global power shifts on the regional strategies of India and Myanmar, examining how these countries balance their internal priorities with the exigencies of international relations.
Rise of Chinese Influence and India’s Strategic Response
China’s meteoric rise over the past few decades has reshaped the global order. With its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and assertive foreign policy, China has expanded its influence across Asia and beyond. This expansion is not just economic but also military and political, posing both opportunities and challenges for neighboring countries.
India, as one of the largest and most influential countries in South Asia, has had to reconsider its strategic imperatives in light of China’s rise. Historically, India has pursued a policy of non-alignment, but the changing dynamics have prompted a shift towards more strategic alliances and partnerships.
India’s response to Chinese expansionism can be seen through its increasing engagement with the Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue), comprising the United States, Japan, Australia, and India. This partnership aims to ensure a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific, countering China’s growing influence in the region. Furthermore, India has strengthened its defense capabilities and infrastructure along its border with China, particularly after the Doklam standoff in 2017 and the Galwan Valley clash in 2020.
Economically, India is diversifying its trade partnerships to reduce dependency on China. Initiatives like “Make in India” aim to boost domestic manufacturing and attract foreign investment. Diplomatically, India is engaging more deeply with Southeast Asian nations through its Act East Policy, enhancing connectivity and cooperation with countries that share concerns about China’s rise.
However, Myanmar presents a contrasting case, illustrating the vulnerabilities of smaller states in the face of a powerful neighbor. The country’s political instability, marked by military coups and ethnic conflicts, has made it highly dependent on China for economic and military support. China is Myanmar’s largest trading partner and a significant source of foreign direct investment. Projects like the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC) are critical for Myanmar’s economic development. However, this dependence comes with strings attached, as Myanmar has limited leverage in its dealings with China.
Military and Diplomatic Reliance
On the military front, China has provided significant support to the Myanmar military, or Tatmadaw, especially in the wake of Western sanctions following the military coup in February 2021. This support has bolstered the military regime, but it has also entrenched Myanmar’s reliance on China, reducing its strategic autonomy.
Both India and Myanmar recognize the necessity of maintaining a balanced and conciliatory approach to international relations, grounded in their internal stability. For India, internal stability and national security are crucial for its regional and global aspirations. Economic growth, social cohesion, and political stability enable India to project power and influence. Thus, while India adopts a firm stance against Chinese expansionism, it also engages in dialogues and seeks to manage its relations with China pragmatically.
Myanmar’s internal chaos, exacerbated by the military coup and ongoing ethnic conflict in Manipur that at times seems to have a transnational and trans-border character, undermines its ability to navigate international relations effectively. Stabilizing the domestic situation is paramount for India and Myanmar to engage more independently on the global stage. Until then, China’s influence is likely to persist, highlighting the intricate balance between internal stability and external diplomacy.
The rise of China as a global power has significantly impacted the regional strategies of its neighbors. India’s strategic recalibrations and Myanmar’s dependence illustrate the diverse responses shaped by their unique circumstances. As global power dynamics continue to evolve, both countries must prioritize internal stability while crafting nuanced and adaptive strategies to navigate the complex international landscape. This balancing act will be crucial in determining their future roles and influence in the region and beyond.