The Naga peace negotiations have been long and exhausting, but given the changed political climate of the coalition government at the Centre, the stalemate is likely to continue. There is also the risk of one of the negotiating parties pulling out unilaterally from the ceasefire agreement. However, notwithstanding insurmountable challenges in the face of geo-political uncertainties, the ongoing peace talks require an amicable conclusion under the current Naga leadership
By Ngaranmi Shimray
In 1997, the Indo-Naga Ceasefire brought about a measure of calm in the states of Nagaland, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. The willingness of both parties, India and NSCN, to search for peace through talks and dialogue was received by the Naga public with great hope and expectations. Countless parleys conducted year after year yielded the FA (Framework Agreement) on the 3rd of August 2015 which is regarded as a precursor to the final peace settlement. But contrary to expectations the FA, instead of smoothening the process to the finale, ruffled the feathers of both parties leading to different interpretations of specified competencies. The ultimatum set by then Interlocutor Mr RN Ravi, when he was the Governor of Nagaland, resulted in hardening of stance on the issues of a Flag and Constitution (Yehzabo) for the Nagas. The peace effort has completed 27 years with no end in sight. At the current rate of progress, the quest for peace will most likely be passed on to younger generation as the older ones fade away with age. But herein lies the risk of the peace talks faltering and taking a turn for the worst as the younger leaders may lack the forbearance and patience unlike their older generation.
Historical decisions of political significance have always been taken by the Central government when a single political party enjoyed single party majority to form the central government. The Congress could resolve the Mizo insurgency in Lushai Hills with the Mizoram Accord and the student agitation with the Assam Accord when it had majority in Parliament. Similarly, under a single party majority central government in the 17th Lok Sabha, the BJP removed the special provisions for Jammu & Kashmir by abrogating Article 370. Peace agreements are political in nature and require single party majority in Parliament to push constitutional amendment and force the partners to fall in line with the majority party. The 18th Lok Sabha has produced a coalition government and it is becoming doubtful if the Naga Peace talks can be concluded during the term of this Parliament.
Given the acrimonious political climate in the country with a resurgent opposition alliance, the likelihood of any historical decision under a coalition government is becoming slimmer. The by-elections to 13 Assembly seats in seven states held after the 2024 parliamentary elections resulted in the opposition parties winning seats from states ruled by BJP. The combined opposition parties won 10 seats while 3 went to BJP. These results, albeit a little early for sweeping conclusion, seems to indicate that the BJP is losing steam and coalition governments is here to stay.
If the coalition government trend continues, the Indo-Naga Peace Talks may see no end in sight for a few more general elections and change of guards to younger leadership would become a certainty. No one can predict how the younger leadership will deal with the peace negotiations. Only time will tell whether a pedestrian pace of peace effort will be tolerated by younger leadership and the snapping of patience of youthful leadership cannot be ruled out. If this happens, the North Eastern region will slip into conflict and it will be the saddest day in the history of the region. The breakdown of talks would deter militant organisations thinking of peace talks with the government of India to shy away as the sincerity and credibility of the central government would be seriously dented.
Consider the J&K quagmire for a moment. In August 2019, decision was taken to abrogate Article 370. On 31st October 2019, Jammu & Kashmir was downgraded into a union territory with legislature and Ladakh was separated from Jammu and Kashmir and made a separate union territory. However, elections to J&K UT are yet to be held as the LG (Lieutenant Governor) of J&K is still grappling with law & order problems. On a batch of petitions challenging the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution, the Supreme Court has already ruled that the state of Jammu & Kashmir does not have internal sovereignty different from other states of the country and upheld as valid the exercise of presidential power to issue constitutional order abrogating Article 370 of Constitution. Given the three contentious issues which have bogged down the Indo-Naga peace talks, the demands of the Naga peace negotiators, which is similar to those removed from the erstwhile J&K state, will be contentious and continue to be challenging for the negotiators.
The Naga peace negotiations have been long and exhausting, but given the changed political climate of the coalition government at the Centre, the stalemate is likely to continue. There is also the risk of one of the negotiating parties pulling out unilaterally from the ceasefire agreement. This will have dangerous consequences for the North Eastern region, currently impacted by the geo-political upheaval in neighbouring Myanmar and the aggressive stance of China over Arunachal, and should not be allowed to happen.
The task ahead for negotiators of the Indo-Naga Peace Talks, notwithstanding the insurmountable, difficult and torturous challenges, begs for serious consideration of both parties for renewed efforts to find a solution. They should not allow 27 years of negotiations to be wasted. It is, therefore of the utmost importance that earnest efforts have to be made by both parties to find a solution under the current Naga leadership by building consensus with different political parties in Parliament.
It will be befitting for both negotiating parties to celebrate and reaffirm their commitment to the Framework Agreement on the 3rd of August 2024 and vow to work with an accommodative spirit by both sides to find a peaceful settlement as early as possible.
(Ngaranmi Shimray is a New Delhi-based social activist and tweets @Aran Shimray. Feedback to his views can be sent at [email protected])