In Manipur, the modern day version of extensive poppy cultivation in the uplands in lieu of the slash and burn agriculture is taking a toll of the forests. The State’s proposal to introduce the commercialized oil palm as mono-culture crop in ‘degraded’ fallow lands is seen as a potential candidate for extended loss of tree cover particularly in the lower reaches of the surrounding hill ranges.
By Salam Rajesh
If deforestation continues at current rates, at least 10 percent of global irrecoverable carbon stocks could be gone by 2050. This hard-case statement by Conservation International in its recent report ‘Irrecoverable Carbon: The places we must protect to avert climate catastrophe’ (2021), fairly warns the world community of the impending dangers least humanity continues to destroy forests and other natural reserves.
“Irrecoverable carbon” refers to the vast stores of carbon in nature that are vulnerable to release from human activity and, if lost, could not be restored by 2050.
Quite interestingly, Conservation International in its report states that, “Indigenous peoples and local communities, who collectively manage more irrecoverable carbon than any other group, face increasing threats to their lands”. It further says that, “One of the most powerful ways for governments to support Indigenous peoples is to ensure (or restore) their land tenure rights”.
This reflection come from the reasoning that, “More than one-third of irrecoverable carbon (47 Gt) is found within Indigenous and local communities’ lands and 23% (32 Gt) is within protected areas”.
The report further notes that, “More than half of irrecoverable carbon (52% or 72 Gt) lies outside of protected areas, or within Indigenous and local communities’ management and stewardship. Lands managed by Indigenous peoples and local communities have significantly lower deforestation rates and can secure carbon stocks over time”.
The redefinition of the significant role of Indigenous peoples and local communities (IPLCs) in both climate mitigation and adaptation strategies has been emphasized in many recent global forums, such as the Marseille World Conservation Congress (France, September, 2021) and the Glasgow Climate Summit (Scotland, November, 2021).
Quite ironically, the report brings out the hard fact that globally, half of the world’s irrecoverable carbon is found on just 3.3% of its land area (4.9 million km2), roughly equivalent to the combined land mass of India and Mexico. That, of course, is peanuts compared to the total land mass on planet Earth.
At a rough estimation, the report states that the ‘Earth’s ecosystems contain 139 billion metric tons (Gt C) of carbon, equivalent to 15 years’ worth of fossil fuel emissions’. The calculation is a fair warning of the limitation in the stock of the irrecoverable carbon stock.
Suggesting solutions such as reinventing ‘Irrecoverable Carbon Reserves’, the CI report says that, “Rapid gains could be achieved by first focusing on the areas with the highest concentrations of irrecoverable carbon per hectare, that is, within peatlands, mangroves, tropical wetlands and tropical forests. The world could proactively secure 75% of the irrecoverable carbon by conserving just 5.4% of additional land (about 800 million hectares) beyond the land currently in protected areas”.
Providing statistics, the report states that, “There are high concentrations of irrecoverable carbon in the Amazon (31.5 Gt), the Congo Basin (8.1 Gt), and New Guinea (7.3 Gt). Other important irrecoverable carbon reserves are located in the Pacific Northwest of North America, the Valdivian forests of Chile, the mangroves and swamp forests of Guyana, the peatlands of Northern Scotland, Niger Delta’s mangroves, Cambodia’s Tonle Sap Lake, the Scandinavian and Siberian boreal forests, and the eucalyptus forest of Southeast Australia”.
Writing in the journal Nature Sustainability (September, 2021), study lead authors Monica L.Noon et al says, “Ecosystem carbon stocks are assessed according to: (1) how they can be influenced by direct and local human action (‘manageability’), (2) the magnitude of carbon lost upon disturbance (‘vulnerability’), and (3) the recoverability of carbon stocks following loss (‘recoverability’)”.
The study while stating that an estimated 4.0 Gt of irrecoverable carbon was lost between 2011 and 2019, at an average of 0.45 Gt irrecoverable carbon annually, provides that the main reason for this is tree cover loss which is caused primarily by commodity-driven deforestation for beef, soy, palm oil and wood fibre, shifting agriculture in the tropics, and by forestry and wildfire in temperate and boreal zone.
In Northeast India, the reasons float down to the slash and burn agriculture in the uplands, uncontrolled timber logging, wildfire lit for hunting, physical modification of forest lands for settlement and industrial purposes, and initiatives for developmental programs like highway and rail expansion.
In Manipur, the modern day version of extensive poppy cultivation in the uplands in lieu of the slash and burn agriculture is taking a toll of the forests. The State’s proposal to introduce the commercialized oil palm as mono-culture crop in ‘degraded’ fallow lands is seen as a potential candidate for extended loss of tree cover particularly in the lower reaches of the surrounding hill ranges.
Noon and co-authors in their study goes further in saying that, “Under business as usual (model), it is possible for at least 4.5 Gt of irrecoverable carbon to be lost each decade due to deforestation alone, meaning at least 10% of the irrecoverable carbon stock globally would be gone by 2050”.
At this estimation, the projection is a failed attempt at to halt the ever rising global temperature by the target year of 2030 to 2050, which the United Nations had set as of high priority for the global community to achieve. The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021 to 2030) primarily targets at rejuvenating ecosystems in the global effort to fight back global warming.
The prioritization comes as fallout of the unprecedented instances of extreme weather conditions all across the globe during the past few years. With temperatures soaring above 50 degree Celsius, heat wave and wildfire occurrences are becoming more frequent. Rainfall patterns have become erratic, giving rise to extreme droughts in many regions. Cyclonic storms are occurring at more regular intervals than in earlier times. In short, the world is bracing for climate catastrophe.
The concept of irrecoverable carbon in ecosystems was introduced in a 2020 study by Conservation International (La Paz, Bolivia) which synthesized ecosystem-level data to estimate the magnitude of irrecoverable carbon across major ecosystems. Limiting carbon gas emissions by expanding the tree cover is largely seen as Nature-based Solution in mitigating climate change.
(The writer is a media professional working on environmental issues. He can be contacted at [email protected])