Developing countries (excluding China) account for less than 15 percent of global climate finance flows, despite representing a quarter of global GDP, CEEW noted, stressing that these countries need roughly USD 3.2 trillion per year by 2035, of which USD 1.3 trillion must come from international sources.
By Salam Rajesh
The Baku to Belém Roadmap to USD 1.3 Trillion, a joint COP29-COP30 initiative, charts how the world can mobilize USD 1.3 trillion annually in international climate finance by the target year 2035, says an analysis of Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).
Developing countries (excluding China) account for less than 15 percent of global climate finance flows, despite representing a quarter of global GDP, CEEW noted, stressing that these countries need roughly USD 3.2 trillion per year by 2035, of which USD 1.3 trillion must come from international sources.
An estimate 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest on sovereign debt than on health or education, the climate watch group stated.
Achieving the target goal requires developing an enabling investment environment for climate-aligned investments specifically in developing countries, CEEW says, laying stress on freeing up fiscal space and in optimizing public expenditure to achieve the SDGs, including climate action.
In achieving climate adaptation goals, enhancing the availability of international public capital across developing countries is essential while for achieving climate mitigation goals, deploying international public capital in a targeted manner for maximum impact, supplemented with innovative sources of financing is urgently required, the CEEW analysis observed.
Bolstering the role of development finance institutions (DFIs) in building investable project pipelines and delivering finance, with a focus on channeling private-sector capital is the booster to accelerate the desired results, the organization noted.
The CEEW study finds that if the world’s most responsible economies contributed just 0.08 percent of GDP to the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, it could unlock USD 60 billion annually, a 75-fold increase over current pledges of roughly USD 800 million.
While still below the USD 400 billion per year sought by developing countries, such a floor would raise global commitments to 15 percent of the required finance, up from 0.2 percent that has currently been mobilized, it said.
Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, CEEW and Special Envoy to CO30 representing South Asia says that, “Embedding vulnerability into the architecture of global climate finance is not charity, it is rational economics. Every dollar invested in resilience yields multiple dividends – in stability, productivity, and dignity. The 0.08 percent floor must become the foundation of global economic security and a step toward meaningful cooperation”.
CEEW’s framework redefines burden sharing for Loss and Damage finance by factoring historical responsibility, capability, and vulnerability. Analyzing 150 countries across 11 indicators, it identified a ‘Most Responsible’ bloc of 25 countries with the ability to pay – the United States, Australia, Japan, and members of the EU – expected to lead with predictable contributions.
Ten years after the Paris Agreement, the world has expanded its climate ambition but fallen short on delivery, CEEW stressed. Over 90 percent of the global economy is now covered by net zero pledges, yet the organization’s assessment of 203 international climate initiatives since 2015 finds that only 5 percent have achieved their goals, while over a fifth are inactive.
Although most initiatives have stated objectives, only 28 percent have dedicated budgets. Starkly, less than a third of the initiatives focus solely on Global South regions across Africa, Asia, or Latin America.
India has already achieved 50 percent non-fossil electricity capacity, five years ahead of target, and is on track to reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 48-57 percent by 2030, exceeding its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target, CEEW noted.
Arunabha Ghosh observed that India is showing what solidarity looks like in action with such initiatives like the International Solar Alliance to South-South collaborations demonstrating that the cooperation is both practical and principled.
The Asia-Pacific region has suffered the world’s most extreme events and losses recently, with over 980,000 lives lost and USD 4.3 trillion incurred since 1970 (Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023), indication that climate action is an economic imperative, not just an environmental one, the organization said.
Addressing the adaptation gap requires regional resilience frameworks, CEEW stressed saying COP30, unfolding amid record heat and rising geopolitical and economic strains, must rebuild trust and deliver tangible results.
Drawing from government and civil society consultations across Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal and Sri Lanka, CEEW identified replicable good practices to address the adaptation gap in one of the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions.
Home to over two billion people, South Asia is stepping up with pragmatic, collaborative solutions because action cannot wait, it said.
In building up the momentum, CEEW stressed on fostering smart regionalism, including building targeted coalitions like India’s Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI) and Nepal’s Sagarmatha Sambaad to advance shared regional goals.
The organization further stressed on driving internal structural transformation by integrating climate resilience into economic planning through models like Bhutan’s Gelephu Mindfulness City and Bangladesh’s Climate Change Trust Fund.
It also advocated for mobilizing affordable and digital finance by expanding green finance through India’s GIFT City and the proposed South Asia Resilience Finance Facility, supported by digital tools like the Climate Smart Governance Dashboard.
The CEEW is among the world’s leading climate think tanks. The Council uses data, integrated analysis, and strategic outreach to support public policy, transform markets, shape technology, and nudge behavior.
CEEW seeks to explain the use, reuse, and misuse of resources. It addresses pressing global challenges through an integrated and internationally focused approach. CEEW has impacted over 400 million lives and engaged with over 20 state governments to date.