The OECD’s latest Environmental Outlook says the three crises are tightly interconnected and worsening, urging countries to strengthen integrated reporting and coordinated policy responses.
By Salam Rajesh
As environmental pressures rise, climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution are set to worsen over time and reinforce each other, warns a latest report of the global forum OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development).
The OECD Environmental Outlook on the Triple Planetary Crisis: Stakes, Evolution and Policy Linkages (https://doi.org/10.1787/257ffbb6-en.) examines the inter-linkages among climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution at multiple levels, including their interlocking drivers, environmental pressures, states and biophysical impacts, as well as in terms of policy responses.
The linkages between climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution would suggest that addressing one challenge automatically helps tackle the other two, the OECD report noted.
Strengthening the consideration of the inter-linkages between these three challenges in national reporting frameworks and for multilateral environmental agreements could help mitigate the challenges, OCED suggested.
In addition, developing national approaches to tackle pollution comparable to those for climate change and biodiversity can help prevent blind spots, the report noted.
Modeling projections suggested by the forum indicate that under current policies, global mean temperatures will likely continue to increase from 1.2 degrees Celsius in 2020 to 2.1 degrees Celsius in 2050 above the pre-industrial levels.
Climate change is also projected to become the main driver of biodiversity loss before mid-century, the OECD report warned.
Quite alarming for the natural world, the report suggested that the terrestrial mean species abundance index is projected to further decline from 59.7 to 56.5, which is equivalent to the conversion of pristine habitat of more than 4 million sq km into an area where all the original species have been lost.
OECD secretary-general Mathias Cormann commented that as governments navigate elevated policy uncertainty and pressures on global growth prospects, they also face the need to make progress on their environmental objectives.
The triple challenges posed by climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution – from plastics to harmful chemicals – continues to intensify and requires effective solutions, he added.
Quite concerning is the suggestive indication that mismanaged plastic waste is projected to increase from 83 to 138 million tons, leading to an increase in global plastic leakage to the environment from 22 to 37 million tons.
Concentrations of particulate matter (PM2.5 and others) and ozone are projected to decline in most regions, driven by reduction in emissions of precursor gases with sulphur dioxide emissions, for instance, projected to significantly decline in all regions (with a 64% decrease globally). This decline, however, will accelerate warming due to the cooling effect of sulphur dioxide, the report noted.
Pollutant emissions to water and soil are projected to continue to increase, at a 43 percent increase globally, the report suggested.
Again, with the concerning suggestion that environmental pressures are primarily driven by growth in specific economic sectors, and spurred by socio-economic trends of population and economic growth, the OECD report profiles that agriculture will remain the main driver of land use change, responsible for 87% of land conversion, as in the future times.
Intensification in agricultural production will mitigate but not prevent an increase in agricultural land, the report suggested while stressing that fossil fuel use is projected to increase by 16% (from 466 to 541 exajoules), with a shift towards natural gas.
Amid ongoing electrification of the energy system, renewables power generation is projected to more than double (from 80 to 209 exajoules), the report noted.
Technological and behavioral changes will enable some decoupling between environmental pressures and economic growth; however, these factors are projected to slow – but not halt – global demand growth of energy, food, materials and water.
The OECD report noted that a first-of-its-kind stock take of 20 national documents across 10 countries (Argentina, Australia, Canada, France, India, Indonesia, Japan, Peoples’ Republic of China, Peru and Uganda) finds that the Biennial Transparency Reports and the National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs) include relatively extensive discussions on the linkages between climate change and biodiversity in terms of their biophysical impacts.
Yet, the considerations of how climate change and biodiversity loss might affect the severity and extent of pollution are largely lacking in the national documents, the report noted.
The OECD report suggests three foundational levers that can possibly lay the groundwork for integrated policy approaches to address the triple planetary crisis and its underlying drivers.
Firstly, by addressing key gaps in research and assessment through better targeting of research funding and by leveraging (inter)national scientific assessment processes on climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution.
Secondly, by strengthening the consideration of the inter-linkages between these three challenges in national reporting frameworks for multilateral environmental agreements, and in addition, developing national approaches to tackle pollution comparable to those for climate change and biodiversity that can help prevent blind spots.
Thirdly, by aligning finance and resource allocation towards jointly addressing the challenges posed by the triple planetary crisis, where synergies can be promoted by embedding the inter-linkages in multilateral environmental and development finance, using national budgeting processes to incentivize collaboration across ministries, and by ensuring that the support measures are well-targeted.
On the concerns of increased agricultural imprints, the report suggests that policies are needed to reduce the environmental footprint of food production and consumption. This is critical in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, mitigating ecosystem degradation from agricultural land use expansion and intensification, and in alleviating nutrient pollution, the report noted.
As a suggestive mitigation strategy, the report suggests that Governments can consider revising regulations and safeguards with an aim to reduce emissions, shift diets and decrease food loss and waste.
Governments have at their disposal a wide range of tools to help mitigate these adverse social and distributional effects, and prevent these issues from becoming an impediment to improving environmental sustainability of food systems, the report stressed.
The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KM-GBF) sets clear targets related to agriculture and food systems, but much remains to be done to implement them, the report says, suggesting that through multi-stakeholder and collaborative approaches under NDCs, NAPs and NBSAPs, governments can ensure that sectoral policies for climate, biodiversity, and food are aligned and geared towards contributing to the global goals for climate and nature.