Ethnic conflict in Manipur has a new dimension. It now points towards a deeper geopolitical manoeuvring involving the US, China, and India. Now is the time to ask what is the future of Manipur if it breaks apart—something we pray does not happen? How will peace be achieved in Manipur when global superpowers are actively destabilizing the region by engaging in proxy conflicts?
By Maheshsana Rajkumar
This week marks the beginning of 16 months of ethnic conflict between the Meiteis and the Kuki-Chin ethnic group in Manipur, which started on May 3, 2023. These are not merely clashes between the Meiteis and the Kukis; the conflict represents a much bigger picture than initially thought, dragging on for over 16 months without any clear resolution or peace for the state of Manipur.
A larger geopolitical game is unfolding in Myanmar between the US and China, with both engaging in proxy warfare through the Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) of Myanmar, including a larger conglomeration called the People’s Democratic Force (PDF), against the junta. The two superpowers are determined to break Myanmar apart to establish their own hegemony, and the spillover effects of this war are being felt in Manipur. Manipur has now entered the picture as both superpowers aim to destabilize the region alongside Myanmar. The recent regime change in Bangladesh further suits their objectives in this ongoing conflict.
The US aims to carve out a Christian country from the ethnic groups who are followers of Christianity inhabiting regions of Southeast Asia and South Asia—specifically, the Northeastern Indian states of Manipur and Mizoram, Chin State, and parts of the Sagaing Region of Myanmar. The US also plans to establish a naval base on St. Martin Island in Bangladesh, and it is important to note that the Chittagong Hill Tracts in Bangladesh are also inhabited by the Kukis.
Interestingly, Kuki think tanks are engaged in talks with India, America, and China, while also receiving support from international churches and Israel. They are bargaining and negotiating for terms that will benefit them the most, aiming to realize their long-cherished dream of forming a country inhabited by their 52 Chin-Kuki sub-tribes. Historically, the Kuki tribes never advanced beyond the village chieftain level (known as Ningthou). The state of Mizoram itself was carved out by the Indian government from Assam state.
China, on the other hand, opposes the formation of a Christian country in this region, viewing it as a serious threat to its national security. A US military base in this area would lead to nuclear warheads being installed, directly targeting Mainland China. The Arakan Army is fighting the junta in what could be the final battle to control Sittwe, after which they are expected to declare an independent nation. Just a few days ago, the MNDAA, an ethnic Han Chinese group that is part of the Brotherhood Alliance in Northern Shan State, officially declared Chinese as the official language of Lashio, a town they control after wresting it from the junta.
Is Prime Minister Modi’s silence on the Manipur issue a result of fear over the Biden administration’s dissatisfaction with India’s support for Russia during the Ukraine war? India is well aware that without US backing, it will be difficult to defend itself from future Chinese aggression. Recently, India changed its stance, with PM Modi visiting Ukraine to show support for the country. Geopolitical dynamics are constantly shifting, as this is the true nature of nations worldwide.
The big question remains: what is the future of our beloved state of Manipur if it breaks apart—something we pray does not happen? How will peace be achieved in Manipur when global superpowers are actively destabilizing the region by engaging in proxy conflicts? If the US and China succeed in breaking Manipur, it will become the Indian government’s responsibility to act decisively. One possible course of action could be the annexation of Kabaw Valley, which is two and a half times the size of Greater Imphal, and resettling Meitei people there alongside their ethnic brethren, the Shanni (Tai/Shan) people. History could repeat itself, as in the late 1800s when Chin tribes drove out the Shanni from Kabaw Valley. Before the valley was transferred to Myanmar on January 9, 1834, the Meiteis and Shanni co-inhabited Kabaw Valley for generations. Now is the right time to reclaim this ancestral territory, a dream held by every proud Meitei person.
Long live Manipur!
(Maheshsana Rajkumar is joint author of the book titled, “The Political Monument: Footfalls of Manipuri History”, writer and independent researcher.)